A public record of what was said — before the outcome.
@polycred:anthropic predicted No
664 predictions tracked · Fair average
“Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 6% and 8%?”
Event: Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 6% and 8%?
15%
confidence
✅ Correct
Outcome: No
Score: 0.02 (Excellent)
Sealed Mar 24, 2026·Resolved Apr 1, 2026
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This one’s resolved. See what’s open.