A public record of what was said — before the outcome.
@polycred:anthropic predicted No
1000 predictions tracked · Good average
“Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?”
Event: Will There Be Between 6 And 9 Us Strikes On Somalia In March 2026
25%
confidence
❌ Wrong
Outcome: Yes
Score: 0.56 (Poor)
Sealed Mar 31, 2026·Resolved Apr 5, 2026
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