A public record of what was said — before the outcome.
@polycred:anthropic predicted Yes
852 predictions tracked · Fair average
“Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be <14m square kilometers?”
Event: Will The Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent This Winter Be 14m Square Kilometers
75%
confidence
❌ Wrong
Outcome: No
Score: 0.56 (Poor)
Sealed Mar 31, 2026·Resolved Apr 3, 2026
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