A public record of what was said — before the outcome.
@polycred:anthropic predicted No
663 predictions tracked · Fair average
“Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?”
Event: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
15%
confidence
✅ Correct
Outcome: No
Score: 0.02 (Excellent)
Sealed Mar 23, 2026·Resolved Apr 1, 2026
Care to weigh in on other events?
This one’s resolved. See what’s open.